If Labour gets this right, it can truly stymie indy

Hapless bystanders who got squeezed in the anti-Tory surge, they are not. There was much more to the SNP’s astonishing election defeat than that. Some party figures have been frank enough to recognise that they are the authors of their own mess, pointing to scandals and policy failures, but others insist their mistake was not to campaign hard enough on independence.

That’s misguided. If one thing was clear about this election, it was that voters just wanted stuff to work again. Many have become exasperated by the SNP Government precisely because it often seems to see its time in office not so much as a chance to fix things, but as a platform to campaign for independence.

For Labour, this is a golden opportunity. Delivering a functioning UK where things are actually getting better is not only the best way to win Holyrood in 2026 but the best argument against independence.

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Do we really know what the SNP stands for any more?

The shortcomings of Scottish nationalism have been exposed in the last few years as multiple pressing problems have crowded in and the SNP has been found wanting.

A key weakness of nationalism, aside from its monstrous history, is that it’s a threadbare idea. It isn’t a political philosophy. It doesn’t help you make society fairer, nurture a healthy environment or protect minorities. It doesn’t show the way to cutting hospital waiting lists or tackling poverty.

It just tells you, as an article of faith, that total autonomy within a particular geographical space is best, which is something that Scottish nationalists and Brexiters have in common.

The SNP talks about independence as if it were Scotland’s mythic destiny. John Swinney insists he “believes” it will transform lives, as if it were a religion.

But why? Where’s the evidence? Did Brexit transform lives for the better? Independence, much like Brexit, is a technical and complex constitutional change wrapped up in mythology and wishful thinking.

The SNP talks as if a cross on a referendum ballot paper will do the hard work of equalising incomes, producing a green energy bonanza and ramming shut the attainment gap.

In fact, no: liberalism will do that, social democratic principles will do that. Or not. All nationalism will do, if an independent Scotland ever comes to pass, is produce a different forum in which real politics will find the solutions - or not - and in which nationalism itself will be entirely helpless, redundant, meaningless.

Scottish nationalism is in any case an argument for solutions deferred, not solutions now. It’s this truth that has been revealed.

To hold people’s trust, the SNP in government needed to show it could make things better right now. Instead, it has tolerated mediocrity and blamed an external foe for failure.

We’ve had too many grandiose promises that haven’t been kept. Leading the world on tackling climate change. Eliminating the attainment gap. More recently: eradicating child poverty. People want to believe these things, of course they do, but what’s the reality? Climate targets missed and now dropped. The Deposit Return Scheme a farce. The attainment gap barely shifting. Standards in reading and science down. NHS waiting lists better than England in some respects, but worse in others, in spite of higher spend per head. Thousands stuck in housing limbo. An even more centralised Scottish state - this from a government that rails against Westminster.

If John Swinney can eliminate child poverty, he will have earned a statue in Princes Street Gardens, but the omens aren’t promising.

So the SNP is less convincing to voters than it once was. What’s more, it faces a disciplined and determined counterpart in Labour: a UK government that is working for today, not for some mythic moment in the future.

Labour knows very well not to underestimate the SNP.  Its decision not to turn on the spending taps straight away will be used against it.

But the SNP won’t be able to return to antagonistic business as usual in its dealings with Westminster. Keir Starmer came to Edinburgh on Sunday as the first Prime Minister with a mandate in Scotland since 2010. The Scottish Government will look petty and culpable if it picks fights and exaggerates disagreements with Labour the way it did with the Tories.

Labour is setting out to make devolution work and if the SNP is seen to try and sabotage that,  it will find little sympathy among the 70 per cent of people who voted against the party last week.

Starmer has promised to “reset the relationship” with Holyrood and improve intergovernmental working.

Devolution inside England will help alter the balance within the UK, reducing the massive dominance of Westminster. There will be a new Council of the Nations and Regions, where the FM and PM will sit together along with other key figures from round the UK. Labour says it will support the Scottish Government to partner with international bodies where appropriate. There might even be a “Scottish visa”.

Above all, Labour wants to remind people what it feels like to have a UK government that does things they actually like. That’s the single most effective way to spike the guns of the independence campaign.

Keir Starmer with John Swinney at Bute House last Sunday (Image: PA)

Of course, if Nigel Farage manoeuvred himself into being leader of the Tory party, and therefore the official opposition, that would surely fuel fresh calls for independence.

But for now, independence feels distant from everyday life.

And so to that question of whether the SNP should put it centre stage from here. John Swinney himself says his party has failed to convince people of its urgency.

But can demanding independence instead of working with Labour really be its best strategy - and at a time it is losing votes and has no credible referendum route map? The vibe is all wrong. This would be the SNP equivalent of the Tories’ drift into fanaticism. It would make them seem more irrelevant. The yes movement will return, but for now, it can offer no answers.

Advantage Labour. Keir Starmer will be focusing on getting things done – so should the SNP.